What is the probability of not having a recession?
To just confine it to a very simple model, I'd say there is only a 25% chance the recession won't happen. How do I come to this conclusion?
We just have to see the 2 biggest problems - US and EU. And using a 50:50 model for each problem - 50% chance they will resolve their issues and 50% chance they won't, the probability of success for both is 50% times 50% which brings us to only 25%.
That is the worry.
To just confine it to a very simple model, I'd say there is only a 25% chance the recession won't happen. How do I come to this conclusion?
We just have to see the 2 biggest problems - US and EU. And using a 50:50 model for each problem - 50% chance they will resolve their issues and 50% chance they won't, the probability of success for both is 50% times 50% which brings us to only 25%.
That is the worry.
